IVF Calculator methodology and data sources

Underlying data

The primary source is the 2024 Yearbook of the German IVF Registry (Deutsches IVF-Register, D.I.R.), the largest national registry for fertility treatments in Europe, active since 1982.

131,801Treatment cycles

139Centers

68,890Women

For factors that the D.I.R. does not break down individually (BMI, smoking, pregnancy history), we use validated data from 6 international studies and meta-analyses. All sources are listed in the references.

Success rates by age

Age is the single most important factor for IVF success. The curve shows clinical pregnancy rates per embryo transfer (fresh cycle, IVF + ICSI, 2019 to 2023):

42% Peak at age 28

38% at ages 30 to 34

23% at age 40

<4% at age 45 and older

Not every pregnancy ends in a birth. The miscarriage rate rises from ~15% (under 30) to over 60% (44 and older). The calculator takes this into account based on age.

Effect of AMH

First published in D.I.R. 2024: AMH-stratified success rates (n=42,572). Our calculator takes the AMH level into account, based on national registry data.

Pregnancy rate by AMH and age

<35 years

AMH <1.0

33.3%

AMH 1 to 3.5

38.5%

AMH >3.5

39.5%

35 to 39 years

AMH <1.0

25.6%

AMH 1 to 3.5

30.9%

AMH >3.5

34.5%

≥40 years

AMH <1.0

13.8%

AMH 1 to 3.5

19.1%

AMH >3.5

22.3%

Source: D.I.R. 2024, n=42,572 cycles with AMH recorded

Effect of transfer day

Data from 126,203 single embryo transfers (2019 to 2023). Day 5 (blastocyst transfer) shows the highest success rate:

Day 2

15.8%

Day 3

18.8%

Day 4

29.6%

Day 5

35.3%

Day 6

27.1%

Clinical pregnancy rate per single embryo transfer. Day 5 = 62% of all transfers.

Frozen cycles (31.5%) have improved significantly and are now almost on par with fresh cycles (30.5%).

Cumulative success rates

The chance of pregnancy rises considerably with each transfer (D.I.R. 2020 to 2023):

Cumulative pregnancy rate by number of transfers

1×

1 in 3 patients

34%

2×

1 in 2 patients

53%

3×

64%

4×

2 in 3 patients

69%

>4×

75%

Diagnosis and indication

Success rates by cause of infertility (D.I.R. 2024):

Male factor

32.8% ×1.07

Unexplained

31.9% ×1.04

Female factor

30.7% ×1.00

Both partners affected

27.9% ×0.91

Clinical pregnancy rate per embryo transfer. Factors relative to the overall average (30.7%).

Adjustment factors

For variables that the D.I.R. does not break down individually, we use validated multipliers from the international medical literature. 1.00 = no effect (reference group).

<18.5 underweight

×0.90

18.5 to 24.9 normal

×1.00

25 to 29.9 overweight

×0.97

30 to 34.9 obesity class I

×0.88

35 to 39.9 obesity class II

×0.80

≥40 obesity class III

×0.70

Non-smoker

×1.00

Former smoker

×0.97

Current smoker

×0.85

None

×1.00

Yes (no birth)

×1.10

With a live birth

×1.15

Duration of infertility:

<2 years

×1.05

2 to 3 years

×1.00

3 to 5 years

×0.95

>5 years

×0.90

Attempt number:

1st attempt

×1.00

2nd attempt

×0.87

3rd attempt

×0.86

4+ attempts

×0.83

Calculation formula

Adjusted base rate model: the age-dependent rate is adapted to the individual situation using multiplicative factors.

Personalized rate = Basis(Alter) × AMH × Diagnose × Transfertag × Zyklus × BMI × Rauchen × SS-Historie × Dauer × Versuch

Live birth rate = SS-Rate × (1 − Abortrate_Alter)

Cumulative P(n) = 1 − ∏ (1 − p × f_i)

Limits: pregnancy rate 2% to 55% | Cumulative max. 95%

View worked example

Patient: age 35, AMH 2.0 ng/ml, male factor, day 5, BMI 26, non-smoker, no previous pregnancy, 1st attempt, fresh cycle

Base (age 35)35.4%

× AMH (1.0 to 3.5, age 35 to 39)×1.037 = 36.7%

× Transfer day (day 5)×1.16 = 42.6%

× Diagnosis (male)×1.07 = 45.6%

× BMI (26)×0.97 = 44.2%

× Duration (<2 years)×1.05 = 46.4%

Pregnancy probability~46%

Live birth rate (miscarriage 22%)~36%

Cumulative after 3 transfers~84%

Limitations

1

Not a regression model: Multiplicative factors assume that the variables are independent. AMH and age are partly correlated.

2

AMH data still new: First published in 2024, only 3 groups, ~70% recording rate.

3

No clinic-specific data: Average across 139 centers. Individual clinics differ.

4

Secondary factors approximated: BMI, smoking, and duration come from international literature.

5

Embryo quality not included: Only known after treatment has started.

Note: Statistical estimates based on average data. Not a substitute for individual medical advice. Your personal chance can differ considerably.

References

Primary sources

German IVF Registry (D.I.R.) Yearbook 2024: 131,801 cycles, 139 centers. deutsches-ivf-register.de Figures and charts drawn from it for Germany, Austria, and Switzerland: IVF Statistics.
D.I.R. Yearbook 2024: special edition for couples deutsches-ivf-register.de

Prediction models

McLernon DJ et al.: OPIS Pre-IVF/Post-IVF Calculator, University of Aberdeen. OPIS Calculator
McLernon DJ et al.: External validation, Human Reproduction 2023. DOI: 10.1093/humrep/dead167
Lintsen AME et al.: Predictive factors IVF, Human Reproduction Update 2010. academic.oup.com
CDC: IVF Success Estimator (SART). cdc.gov

BMI and lifestyle

Sermondade N et al.: Cumulative LBR & BMI, Frontiers in Endocrinology 2020. frontiersin.org
BMI & cumulative LBR: Nature Scientific Reports 2022. nature.com
Hart RJ et al.: Lifestyle factors & IVF. PMC 7616016
NCBI Bookshelf: Prediction of IVF success. NBK327761
Predictors of IVF success: Fertility and Sterility 2024. fertstert.org
Informative predictors: Nature Scientific Reports 2022. nature.com

Last updated: March 2026. Data as of the D.I.R. Yearbook 2024

IVF Calculator methodology and data sources

Underlying data

Success rates by age

Effect of AMH

Effect of transfer day

Cumulative success rates

Diagnosis and indication

Adjustment factors

Calculation formula

Limitations

References

Primary sources

Prediction models

BMI and lifestyle

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